← Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
Fire SuitedTier 1
at Card Merchant Hamilton PTM Regionals
decks
2
(5.9% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
7-6-0
overall winrate
53.8%
ELO-adjusted winrate
53.4%
avg ELO +1.4 per match
expected value
51.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1435
· median 1435
· range 1396–1474
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1043
Q1 1222
Q3 1430
1584
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.6% | +18.5 |
| Water Aetherwing | 11.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 40.1% | -9.5 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 8.8% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 63.6% | +10.1 |
| Water Allies | 8.8% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 64.3% | +13.8 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 8.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.2% | +17.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 5.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.2% | -15.7 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.4% | -13.8 |
| Water Fractal | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
The 2 public Fire Suited decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
